Google can't afford to allow Microsoft to buy AOL from Time Warner. The Google AOL partnership currently provides $380 million dollars a year for Google. The recent stories of the Microsoft / AOL dealings have to scare Google.

The length of the initial AOL-Google deal was never announced, but it was renewed 17 months later, in October 2003. Assuming that deal was for 2 or 3 years, it's time for renewal either one month from now, or one year from now.

Having this inside knowledge of what was about to happen in the landscape of search suggests why now was the right time for Google to do a $4 billion secondary offering at $295 a share.

Google is also looking to play in the Internet access game, see http://wifi.google.com/faq.html and http://wifi.google.com/download.html.

Picking up AOL at this time seems like a necessary step to secure Google's advertising growth. They simply can't afford to let Microsoft steal AOL from their grasp.

A Microsoft Purchase of AOL will have significant regulatory hurdles with in the Instant Messaging Space. This would be a difficult path for Time Warner, and ultimatly might not be approved.

The AOL culture has an ingrained hatred of Microsoft from the early days, although the culture has changed signficantly as the old guard has been purged from AOL, I think the culture clash would be signfigant.

I think it's clear that Google should, will, and must acquire AOL at this time.

We look forward to welcoming Google to Northern Virginia.